Heading into the final week of the regular season, we have a good idea of who the contenders in the football tournament from the South Shore.
Teams like Duxbury, Milton, Rockland, and Hull have cemented themselves as “teams to beat.”
However, several other teams on the South Shore are sitting on the edge of the playoffs, needing one break or another to hold onto or claim a spot in the tourney.
Here’s an examination of what has to happen in Week 8 for some of the South Shore’s bubble teams to make the postseason.
Division 1
Currently, Weymouth (3-4) is sitting as the lone bubble team in the top division at 17 in the MIAA Power Rankings.
Technically, were the season to have ended after Week 7, the Wildcats would be in the field by virtue of the 16th ranked team, BC High, failing to reach the requisite three-win total.
Division 1 is a story of the haves and have nots at the moment; or better, the eligibles and not eligibles.
Weymouth and Newton South (24) are the only teams outside the top 16 with enough wins to qualify for the playoffs.
Newton South far out to reach the postseason, but several teams would be eligible with Week 8 wins.
Haverhill (18), Newton North (21), and Lexington (22) are all 2-5 and within striking distance, but if they lose in the final week of the regular season, Weymouth would lock in a spot in the tourney.
Fortunately for the Wildcats, each aforementioned team has a stiff test this week, with Haverhill facing Billerica (7-0), Newton North is facing Walpole (6-1), and Lexington is facing Reading (7-0).
Division 2
Bridgewater-Raynham (4-3) is on the outside looking into the D-2 tourney, sitting at 17.
Two teams are within striking distance, with Concord-Carlisle at 16 and Bishop Feehan at 15.
B-R sits with an 8.4588 ranking, behind C-C’s 9.7990 and Feehan’s 9.8121.
Taking on Middleboro (13.2765) this week will give the Trojan’s ranking a boost as long as they can keep it close, if not win.
Concord-Carlisle doesn’t have this luxury, facing a lowly Acton-Boxborough (1-6) team with a -0.7207 ranking.
Bishop Feehan, however, faces King Philip (22.3386), owner of the third best overall rating in the state.
C-C should come back towards the Trojans by virtue of a bad opponent, while a 14 point loss for Feehan would worse than half their average margin of victory from 3.71 to 1.50.
All this to say, while it is a tall order for B-R, things could look a lot better by weekend’s end.
Division 6
Several South Shore teams are bunched near the edge of the rankings in D-6, with Archbishop Williams at 15, Norwell at 16, and Cardinal Spellman at 18.
Archie’s seems safe enough at the moment, and Norwell is not playoff eligible with just one win thus far on the season, so let’s focus on Spellman (2-5).
The Cardinals are the de facto 17 seed once you remove Norwell from the equation. Ranked at -4.2287, they trail Weston (-4.0692) slightly for the final spot in the dance.
With just two wins on the season, Spellman has to defeat their Week 8 opponent, Arlington Catholic (3-4), to become eligible.
Assuming they do that, they have a good chance of jumping Weston. Weston will face Boston English (1-6), a team whose -15.2515 rating will surely hurt their own regardless of the outcome of the game.
The point will be moot if the Cardinals don’t win this week, but at least they know, amidst all the uncertainty of this season, their situation is almost certainly a win-and-you’re-in.
Division 7
While Mashpee (3-4) is just outside our technical area of coverage, they are in the South Shore League and will have our rooting interest behind them this week.
The Falcons are in position to make the postseason right now, sitting at 16 in D-7. There is really only one team that could catch them, in 17th ranked Leicester.
It’s a simple equation, however, for Mashpee. Any worrying about the algebra of the Power Ranking system would be put to rest if Leicester (2-5) doesn’t defeat their Week 8 opponent.
Leicester will face Oxford (6-1) to finish out their regular season.
Other “bubble” teams
Three South Shore teams are firmly inside the top 16 of their respective divisions, but are in need of a Week 8 win to gain playoff eligibility. Silver Lake (13, D-3), Carver (11, D-8), and Randolph (12, D-8) are all 2-5 on the season.
Each of the three have daunting tasks in Week 8.
Silver Lake will host Hingham (5-2). Carver will be on the road at Nauset (4-3). Randolph will be on the road at Mashpee (3-4).