Earlier this month, Xander Bogaerts joined the ever-expanding list of homegrown Red Sox talent to flee for greener pastures, inking an 11 year, $280 million deal with the Padres.
It was another instance of the Sox significantly undervaluing one of their own players, and continuing to operate as the lemonade stand to another team’s Michelin Star restaurant.
Red Sox Nation, a country currently in open revolt against the Henry-Bloom oligarchy at its helm, watched as the penultimate pillar in its 2018 World Series core fell.
The loss of Bogaerts stung more than the rest, however. More than Andrew Benintendi being shipped out of town for pennies on the dollar. More than Christian Vazquez being traded to a team you were *allegedly* still competing with midseason. Even more than moving on from Mookie Betts, whose relationship with the Sox always seemed all business.
Xander wanted to be here. Xander was the elder statesman of the 2018 core, and the longest tenured member of the team. Xander loved Boston, and Boston loved Xander.
In the weeks since the deal was finalized, Red Sox fans have been forced to try to rationalize.
“Well, 11 years at that price is just too much…”
Certainly, the terms of Bogaerts’ deal with the Padres are staggering. Perhaps its even a contract San Diego will come to regret in the late 2020s. But, lost on no one is the fact that the Sox could’ve kept Bogaerts in house for significantly less.
And so what if they couldn’t? The Red Sox have the pocket depth to absorb some bad contracts and keep moving forward. It didn’t have to be this way.
A line we’ll undoubtedly repeat to ourselves when Raffy Devers is sent packing at the deadline this season, or worse, lost for no return next offseason: it didn’t have to be this way.
We talk with @joonlee on his report that the Red Sox and Devers are “galaxies apart” on a contract right now 😬 pic.twitter.com/BFUMPyrvMS
— ITM Podcast (@ITM_pod) December 20, 2022
The idea that the Red Sox had to make such a stark course-alteration to correct for Dave Dombrowski’s drunken spending spree is patently false. A storyline crafted up by John Henry and the brass to mask their funneling of funds out of Fenway and into the Pittsburgh Penguins and a bid for a new NBA team.
When you really lay out the numbers, not only could Bogaerts still be here, and not only could the core still be intact, but the Red Sox could have brought in new faces to bolster an already championship-caliber roster.
Take a look below at what the 2023 Red Sox Roster could look like had the Sox retained their talent and given them the same contracts each will be on during the upcoming season.
Dive deeper and realize that these numbers are based on market premiums. Had the Red Sox not disrespected Bogaerts for the better part of two seasons, that number would be lower. Had the Red Sox signed Vazquez, another guy who desperately wanted to be here, prior to free agency, that number would be lower.
Talk about having your cake and eating it, too. Story, Jansen, Hernandez. All still fit on the roster.
Look at that lineup. Who is sending a better nine batters to the plate?
The starting rotation certainly leaves something to be desired, but that’s what the deadline is for. Or perhaps you concede and let an aging Martinez depart and use the cash to go get a front-line starter?
Perhaps you’d even…go into the luxury tax?
Of course, you wouldn’t really have to. Short one player on the 26-man roster, you’d still have just over $11 million to fill out the final 15 spots on your 40-man before you hit the $233 million luxury tax threshold.
You may still have $1 million tied up in a Hirokazu Sawamura buyout, but the $9.5 million in dead money from the buyouts of Jackie Bradley Jr. and Tommy Pham never would have needed to exist.
You’d also likely have a fan base that wasn’t either out for blood or, worse, apathetic.
This offseason, Sox fans have watched their bitter rival New York Yankees shell out to resign their homegrown star (and proceed to pin a “C” on his chest, much in the way they could only dream the Sox would’ve done to Bogaerts). They’ve watched as their former GM Dave Dombrowski continued to spend big to build a roster that came up just short this past October. They’ve watched as Steve Cohen has continued to flaunt his seemingly boundless check book to bring a contender to the Big Apple.
All the while, they’ve watched fan favorites exit and ticket and concession prices rise.
In the three years since Chaim Bloom has taken over, the Red Sox have operated as anything but the big market ball club they once were.
Top Team Spending over last 3 Offseasons per @spotrac:
1️⃣ NYM – $1.6 Billion
2️⃣ NYY – $833 Million
3️⃣ TEX – $830 Million
4️⃣ SDP – $824 Million
5️⃣ PHI – $794 Million
6️⃣ TOR – $600 Million
7️⃣ LAD – $584 Million
8️⃣ CHC – $479 Million
9️⃣ HOU – $404 Million
🔟 MIN – $355 Million pic.twitter.com/2BZCQiUPGE— Greg Harvey (@BetweenTheNums) December 21, 2022
The Sox have been outside the top 10 in team spending over the last three years, surpassed by teams like the Twins and Rangers. The Sox will be outside the top 10 in team payroll this year, projected by Spotrac as having the 15th highest payroll in baseball behind teams like the Rockies and White Sox.
Even worse, the Sox did reach into the luxury tax range last year, showing that even when they’ve spent in the Bloom Era, they have not done so wisely.
While the Sox will tell you that at some point, they had to reset their spending to avoid the steepest luxury tax penalties, the numbers would tell you they could have been more creative than hosting a three-year long fire sale, and Steve Cohen would just laugh at you for even suggesting such a thing.
Look at the roster above. In just over three months, hold it next to the one the Red Sox announce on Opening Day. When you do, just remember…
It didn’t have to be this way.
