The Patriots playoff hopes are clinging by a thread.
While questions remain surrounding Sunday’s game against the Bills in the wake of Damar Hamlin’s cardiac event on the field in Cincinnati, a January victory in Orchard Park seems a tenuous proposition at best.
Though the Pats could backdoor a playoff spot with a loss to Buffalo, as we outlined on this week’s Sports Exchange, the potential for missed games does muddy the waters a bit.
Certainly, Patriots fans never should have been left Googling “NFL wild card tiebreakers;” a correct catch call in Minnesota, or some situational awareness in Las Vegas, or some better ball care against Cincinnati would’ve prevented all that.
Instead, the team heads to upstate New York, while in control of their own destiny, in need of a win.
Beating the Bills has not been this team’s forte of late. The Patriots are 1-5 against Buffalo in the post-Brady era. Fans are understandably down on the team’s chances Sunday, but thus far on the season, the defense has given the Pats a chance in most every game. Chances, of course, the offense has immediately squandered.
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Will the defense have the horses to keep the Pats in the game this Sunday? That remains to be seen. If they do not, there’s a case to be made that blame should fall on Matt Patricia’s shoulders for that as well.
If I may explain:
The secondary will be the biggest question on Sunday. A tough assignment in containing the Diggs-Davis-McKenzie-Keene corps is made even tougher when you’re undermanned.
Jack Jones is on IR. Jalen Mills hasn’t played since Thanksgiving. Marcus Jones missed last week with a concussion. Jonathan Jones, who was already questionable going into last week’s game against Miami, suffered an injury late in the game that may keep him out on Sunday.
Do we remember the Isaiah McKenzie game last December? Miles Bryant filled in for an injured Jonathan Jones in the slot and McKenzie, an injury fill-in himself, promptly put up 125 yards and a touchdown on 11 catches, eight of which came against Bryant.
Bryant also gave up a cool six receptions on seven targets in man coverage.
While Myles “Between He and the Receiver” Bryant is admittedly improved this year, get ready. If the Pats are forced to give Tae Hayes significant snaps on Sunday, it will get ugly quick.
A lacking secondary could certainly be mitigated by a good pass rush, but that seems to have disappeared from the Patriots arsenal as well.
Don’t let Josh Uche’s stellar second half fool you, the Patriots pass rush has been trending in the wrong direction since the holiday season began.
Patriots pass rush statistics show a marked drop off over the past six weeks.
Prior to the Thanksgiving game in Minnesota, the Patriots had 114 QB pressures and 36 sacks in their first 10 games. Over the last six weeks, they’ve managed just 51 pressures and 15 sacks.
That’s a drop off of roughly three pressures and one sack per game.
The one sack can be attributed Matthew Judon, who once again is fading as the season wears on.
After totaling 13 sacks and 34 pressures through the first 10 games of the season, Judon, as WATD alum Matt McCarthy aptly noted, has gone quiet in recent weeks.
Is Matt Judon still on the Patriots? This guy would be the best player in the NFL if the season was 11 games per year.
— Matt McCarthy (@MattMcCarthy985) January 1, 2023
The Pro Bowl-bound Judon has just 2.5 sacks and nine pressures over the last six games.
That’s a drop off of one sack and two pressures per game.
Matthew Judon’s pass rushing statistics. Pre and post Thanksgiving splits.
Judon candidly admitted after last season that fatigue played a big factor in his second half downturn. While the numbers aren’t so stark this year, and the fade came slightly later, it is nevertheless concerning.
One could posit that fatigue may be playing a factor once again. With the extra time on the field, Judon’s average snap count has gone up from an average of 47 snaps per game through the first 10 weeks to 58.3 snaps per game over the last six weeks.
Thus, let’s begin (or rather, compile upon) the blaming of Matt Patricia.
The Patriots were dominated in the first half two weeks ago by Cincinnati. They entered the half down 18-0 having only spent around 10 minutes with the offense on the field.
The disparity waned slightly in the second half, but it was more of the same in the first half against Miami last week, when the Pats were out-possessed by a two to one ratio.
With a defense battling injuries, and forced to play a 17th game thanks to the money-grubbing stupidity of the league, the last thing the unit needs is inordinate time spent on the field.
When you look back on the last six weeks, during which the Pats have gone 2-4, that’s exactly what the defense has been forced to endure.
The offense has spent just 148:12 on the field since kickoff on Thanksgiving, whereas the defense has accounted for 211:48 of game time.
That’s over an hour difference; 63:36 to be exact. In other words, the defense has played one (1) full game more than the offense over the last six weeks.
When you add context to those numbers, it gets even worse.
The Patriots are ranked 28th in the league in time of possession. Prior to Thanksgiving, they were ranked 6th.
Over the last six weeks, the Pats rank dead last in average time of possession, a full 2:40 per game clear of second-worst Miami.
The team is last overall amongst teams who haven’t had a bye in the last six weeks, and even more concerningly fourth overall against all 32 teams since Thanksgiving.
NFL Time of Possession statistics.
That means that of the 11 teams who have had a bye (or had a game postponed in the case of Buffalo and Cincinnati), eight have possessed the ball more in five games than the Patriots have in six.
The Patriots are also the only team in the NFL has not won the time of possession battle in at least one of their games over the last six weeks. Tennessee, New Orleans, and the LA Rams are the only other teams who haven’t out-possessed their opponent more than once since Week 12.
It’s bad enough seeing those numbers laid out as they are, but even worse when you consider over that stretch, Matt Patricia’s mission operative has been to keep the opposing offense off the field.
With high-powered offenses on the far sideline in Minnesota, Buffalo, Cincinnati, and Miami, Patricia was supposed to hold onto the ball and shorten the game.
He was roundly roasted for failing to do so against Buffalo, but he’s gotten a bit of a pass for his ineptitude in doing so for six straight weeks.
Frankly, it’s entirely unsurprising that the defense would be succumbing to injuries and failing to generate consistent pass rush when you consider their work rate. It’s a wonder they aren’t more visibly sucking wind by the fourth quarters of these games.
As reports circle that changes are coming for the Patriots offensive staff in the offseason, submit this as one more mark against Matt Patricia.
And when you see Josh Allen put the defense in a blender on Sunday, remember who should be eating a fat piece of that blame pie.
